Home News Zillow forecast: Home prices to fall in these 259 housing markets—while 616 markets go higher

Zillow forecast: Home prices to fall in these 259 housing markets—while 616 markets go higher

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As far back as 1981, new york times I played a work titled “Arrival [Housing] Collapse is already here. ” The article’s premise was the Federal Reserve’s inflation struggle. Mortgage rates rise to 18%— was about to burst the country’s housing bubble. Ultimately, home sales and home construction levels plummeted, but the predicted ’80s housing crash never materialized.

Fast forward to 2022 and Federal Reserve’s Ongoing Inflation War Again, there are those who question whether a housing collapse is imminent. As in 1981, Soaring mortgage rates push US housing market plunges into sharp slowdown. year-on-year Sale of existing homes When new home sale They decreased by 20.2% and 29.6% respectively.

or Rapid contraction of the US housing market—Both the National Association of Home Builders and the National Association of Realtors “Housing Depression”— Analysts are lowering their 2023 house price forecasts. Industry insiders say he needs more than 20% for the peak-to-trough drop.

this week Zillow revised its 12-month outlook And now, we expect US home prices to rise by 1.4%.that is 2.4% predicted a month agoand from below 7.8% in July forecast.

and meanwhile Jiro expects national home price growth to slow to 1.4%, but that will vary widely by market. Let’s take a deeper look.

Back in July, Zillow economists predicted that housing markets in just five regions are bracing for a fall in house prices. over the next year. Then in August Zillow Economist Revised to Count to 123 Regional Markets.

Zillow economists updated their forecasts this week. They now forecast a likely decline in home prices between August 2022 and August 2023 in 259 of the country’s 896 regional housing markets. Four of these markets are projected to see home price declines of more than –5%. That list includes Fairbanks (-7% projected decline). Lake Charles, LA (–6.1%); Minot, ND (–6%); Mount Gay, Virginia (down -5.1%).

However, Zillow still expects home prices to rise in 2023 across much of the region’s housing market. Overall, Zillow forecasts that 615 markets are poised to see home price increases over the next year. The other 22 markets are expected to remain flat.

Zillow expects home prices to rise in most markets over the next 12 months, but does not expect significant growth in the remaining months of 2022. In fact, over the next three months (see map above), house prices will fall in 552 markets. why? this summer, About two-thirds of the country’s largest housing markets see home prices fall We are facing a steep rise in mortgage rates. As we speak, the economic shock from rising mortgage rates continues to eat away at some of the gains made this spring.

“Our view is that even if supply levels aren’t rising, home prices will fall. Research Director Rick Palacios Jr. said. luck.

Let me be clear. There is no consensus when it comes to housing forecasts for 2023.companies like core logic, fannie mae, freddie mac, and Zillow both continue to forecast higher home prices over the next year. Meanwhile, companies such as John Burns Real Estate Consulting, Zonda, Capital Economics, Moody’s Analytics, and Zelman & Associates all predict a decline in home prices over the next year.

Want to stay up to date on the US housing market? Follow me twitter and @News Lambert.

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