Home News Zillow economists: Here’s the home price shift coming for your local housing market in 2023

Zillow economists: Here’s the home price shift coming for your local housing market in 2023

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Only one residential bull is standing. Jiro.

Not only does Zillow disagree, The Story of the “Housing Price Correction”a Seattle-based home listing site thinks pandemic housing boom have A few remaining gas in the tank. Between July 2022 and June 2023 he Zillow expects US home prices to rise another 7.8%. (Scroll down to find metro-level forecasts).it’s well above 4.6% average annual growth rate Published since 1987.

research groups such as Zelman & Associates, capital economicsWhen John Burns Real Estate Consulting Everyone believes the country is close to falling home prices.In their view, a surge in mortgage rates helped ‘Overvalued’ US housing market is over the limitThe question arises here. Why is Zillow so bullish?

A lot of it boils down to supply. From the first week of January to the first week of July, Zillow.com inventory levels An 18% jump from 546,800 listings to 642,800 listings. Even with that surge, we’re still in a historically tight market. Inventory remains 54% below his 1.4 million active listings in July 2019. Existing home prices are unlikely to fall as long as inventory is scarce.

However, this latest Zillow forecast shows another downward revision. Faced with weakening housing data, Zillow cut its forecast for house prices year-on-year to 7.8% from 9.7%. This is the fourth month in a row that Zillow has announced a downward revision.

“The housing market is rapidly rebalancing from what was arguably the strongest seller’s market in decades, with rising inventories and less competition for housing in the face of significant affordability challenges. Given the current macroeconomic headwinds, we expect the rebalancing to continue.” Write to Zillow Researchers.

Nationally, Zillow forecasts a 7.8% rise in home prices over the next 12 months. However, it varies greatly by region.

Of the 911 regional housing markets analyzed by Zillow economists, 906 are forecast to see rising home prices between July 2022 and June 2023. A 6.4% decline is expected in Greenville, Mississippi.

Zillow expects 741 markets to see home price increases of 5% or more over the next year. Meanwhile, 136 markets are expected to see home price growth of 10% or more year-over-year. This includes markets such as Athens, Georgia (10.3% projected growth). Durango, Colorado (10.3%); Grenada, Mississippi (10.3%); Fort Myers, Florida (10.2%); Morristown, Tennessee (10.2%).

Note that some of this house price increase has already been built in. At the end of the data collection, housing deals are lagging behind. Many of the home sales finalized in August and September actually occurred in June and July.

Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi doesn’t share Zillow’s rosy outlook.

Over the next year, Moody’s Analytics predicts no change in US housing prices. This marks the lowest level of house price gains since 2011. But it’s national. At the regional level, Moody’s Analytics expects home prices to fall in about half the country.

Earlier this week, luck We reached out to Moody’s Analytics to access the latest proprietary home analytics. A researcher at a financial information firm has calculated how home prices could change in more than 400 regional housing markets between the fourth quarter of 2022 and his fourth quarter of 2024. Did.

Moody’s Analytics predicts that 204 of the country’s 414 largest residential markets will see rising home prices over the next two years. in the meantime, Moody’s Analytics expects home prices to fall in 210 markets.The steepest drop will come, according to Zandi Housing Markets Like Boise And Austin Are Pretty ‘Overvalued’ Comparison with underlying economic fundamentals. When a recession comes Prices can fall as much as 15% to 20% in these markets..

Want to stay up to date on the US housing market? Follow me twitter and @News Lambert.

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