Home News The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada, October Update: Prices Plunge at Fastest Pace on Record

The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada, October Update: Prices Plunge at Fastest Pace on Record

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With the Bank of Canada rate hike and QT Goose mortgage rate hikes, the really weird price spikes are quickly unwinding.

To wolf richter for wolf street.

Is the Canadian housing market trying to grasp where the reality lies? After a period of ridiculous house price spikes triggered by Bank of Canada interest rate restraint and quantitative easing, the BoC is now raising interest rates and By cutting the asset (QT) that has pushed up loan rates, you can combat the blistering inflation. As we will soon see, not all markets are highly inflated, but this makes them indigestible in highly inflated markets.

As such, the 11-city Teranet-National Bank house price index as a whole plunged 3.1% in August-September, the biggest monthly plunge ever, after plummeting 2.4% in July-August. Lehman bankruptcy in December 2008.

Over the past four months, the index has fallen 7.0%, its biggest four-month decline ever. The four-month decline narrowed the year-on-year spike from a 19% range in March and April to 6.0% in September.

Victorian house prices fell 6.9% in September from August. Vancouver fell 3.9% in September after falling 2.0% in August. In Hamilton, prices plunged 3.3% in September following a 5.8% plunge in August, down 13.5% in three months. In Toronto, prices fell 3.0% in September after falling 4.0% in August, down 11.1% in three months. In Ottawa, the stock fell 3.5% for the month after falling 3.1% in August. However, the index hit new highs in Calgary and Edmonton, two oil cities where prices have not moved much over the past 14 years.

Hamilton, Ontario will have Canada’s greatest ever housing bubble in January 2021, surpassing Vancouver as measured by the Terranet National Bank Home Price Index (an index set at 100 for all cities in June 2005). surpassed. Hamilton had already surpassed Toronto a few months ago. These price increases were so extreme they were laughable.

But now, hot air is coming out of this most amazing housing bubble. September prices fell 3.3% from August, after falling 5.8% from July to August. Prices have plummeted 13.5% over the past four months since May’s ridiculous spike tippy top, limiting year-over-year price gains to 5.6%.

Greater Toronto Area, house prices plummeted 3.0% in August-September after an outrageous spike peaked in May. In four months, the index plummeted his 11.1%, reducing his year-on-year rise to 4.5%.

in Greater Vancouver, House prices fell 3.9% this month after falling 2.0% the previous month. Since its peak in April, prices have fallen 7.8% and year-on-year gains have been capped at 3.9%.

in Victoria, house prices fell 6.9% from August to September, down 9.4% from their peak in May. This reduced his year-on-year increase to 4.7%.

The methodology of the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index is based on “repeated sales,” which tracks the price of the same home each time it is sold. Unlike median pricing, the “repeat sale” method is not affected by changes in the mix of homes sold. The data here are not seasonally adjusted.

in Halifax, After a very nice housing bubble with price spikes in the range of 35% year-on-year, prices fell 8.8% from their peak in June, falling 5.3% and 3.6% in July and August before falling to There has been little change since August. Respectively. Year-over-year growth nearly halved to 16.4% in these months.

in montrealhouse prices fell 3.3% in August-September, down 4.9% from their peak in June, and their year-on-year gains fell to 10.8%.

in Winnipeghome prices fell 3.2% over the month, down 4.5% from their peak, and their year-on-year gains slowed to 5.9%.

in Ottawa, home prices plummeted 3.5% in September after a 3.1% plunge in August, down 8.0% from their peak in June. It continues to rise by 5.0% year-on-year.

in Quebec City, house prices fell 1.4% in September, down 2.4% from their peak in July. This gave him a profit of 10.5% year-over-year.

in Calgary, Canada’s petroleum capital, home prices hit a new high of 0.3% in September, up 14.7% year-on-year. From mid-2007 to mid-2020, when Bank of Canada mass printing moved the market, prices were largely flat. It was great until mid-2007, but it’s no longer a housing bubble:

in Edmonton, House prices also rose to new highs in the Canadian oil patch, rising 0.3% to 5.6% year-on-year after 15 years of virtually no house price growth following the oil bubble through mid-2007. has resulted in an increase of

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