In some markets, prices plummeted even more than when they surged.
To wolf richter for wolf street.
Since their May peak, home prices in the San Francisco Bay Area are down 11.6%, in the Seattle metropolitan area down 11.3%, in San Diego down 7.9%, in Los Angeles down 6.0% and in Denver down 5.7%. . According to Dallas Metro, prices have fallen 4.3 percent from his June peak. S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index “September” announced today registered in public records In July, August and September of the trades that took place around June to August, this is the time frame we are looking at here.
This is the second month in this recession, and the index, which is four to six months behind reality, shows monthly home price declines in all 20 cities in the index.
The largest monthly declines occurred in the following regions:
- Seattle: -2.9%
- San Francisco: -2.9%
- Las Vegas: -2.4%
- Phoenix: -2.2%
- Dallas: -2.1%
- San Diego: -2.1
- Denver: -2.0%
Month-to-month declines of 2% or more in the Case-Shiller Index (a three-month moving average that smoothes monthly volatility) only occurred during housing recession 1 and the current recession.
Home prices plunged 2.9% in the San Francisco Bay Area. “September” (three-month moving average of July, August, and September) increased by 11.6% from August and from the peak May.
More steep than steep: Over the last four months, the index has plummeted (-46 points) faster than it did in the last four months when it surged sharply (+40 points).
These four consecutive months of decline cut the year-on-year rise to just 2.3%.
The ‘San Francisco’ Case-Shiller index covers five counties in the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area: San Francisco, part of Silicon Valley, part of the East Bay, and part of the North Bay.
Home prices plummeted 2.9% in the Seattle subway. September is down 11.3% from August and from the peak May.
Over the past four months, the index has plummeted almost as fast (-47 points) as the previous four months’ spectacular surge (+49 points).
This four-month decline has reduced the year-on-year gain to 6.2%.
Home prices fell 2.1% in the San Diego subway August-September saw a 7.9% increase from the May peak.
The descent is not as fast as the rise: -34 points in the 4 months after the peak, +44 points in the final 4 months of the staggering surge.
This four-month decline has reduced the year-on-year gain to 9.5%.
Los Angeles Metro:
- m/m: -1.8%.
- -6.0% after peaking in May.
- YoY: +8.8%.
- -25 points in the four months since peak, +38 points in the last four months of surge.
Los Angeles’ current index value of 398 means that home prices have risen 298% since January 2000, when the index was set at 100. America’s Greatest Housing Bubble. Both are currently below Miami (+304%), but Miami prices are starting to fall as well.
The Case-Shiller Index uses a “sales pair” method to compare current month sales to previous sales of the same home. Price changes within each sales pair are aggregated into a metropolitan index, weighted based on the time period in which the previous sale occurred, and adjusted for housing improvements and other factors (methodology).
- m/m: -2.0%.
- -5.7% after peaking in May.
- YoY: +9.3%.
- -19 points in 4 months from peak, +35 points in spike in last 4 months.
- m/m: -2.2%.
- From June peak: -4.4%.
- YoY: +12.6%
- +15 points in 3 months from peak, -20 points in spike in last 3 months.
- m/m: -1.2%.
- -4.3% after peaking in May.
- YoY: +6.7%.
- -15 points in 4 months from peak, +27 points in last 4 months surge.
- m/m: -2.1%.
- From June peak: -4.3%.
- YoY: +16.3%
- -13 points in 3 months from peak, +20 points in last 3 months of spike.
las vegas metro:
- m/m: -2.4%.
- From July peak: -3.7%.
- YoY: +12.9%
- Plunge then surge: -11 points 2 months after peak, +5 points for spike over last 2 months.
Washington DC Metro:
- m/m: -0.9%.
- From June peak: -3.1%.
- YoY: +6.5%
- Fall than rise: -10 points 3 months after peak, +9 points spike over last 3 months.
- m/m: -1.6%.
- -3.0% after peaking in June.
- YoY: +8.8%
- -10 points in 3 months from peak, +16 points in last 3 months of spike.
- m/m: -0.9%.
- July peak: -1.3%
- YoY: +23.8%
- -5 points in 2 months from peak, +10 points in last 2 months of spike.
- m/m: -1.0%.
- July peak: -1.2%
- YoY: +24.6%
- -5 points in the 2 months from the peak, +14 points in the last 2 months of the spike.
in the New York Metro:
- m/m: -0.7%.
- July peak: -1.3%
- YoY: +10.6%
- -3.6 points in the 2 months from the peak, +3 points in the last 2 months of the spike.
The New York subway has experienced 173% house price inflation since January 2000, based on 273 Case-Shiller Index values.
The remaining six cities in the 20-City Case-Shiller Index have low house price inflation and do not fall into this most spectacular housing bubble line-up. However, all of them registered month-over-month declines in September: Chicago (-0.6%), Charlotte (-1.1%), Minneapolis (-1.0%), Atlanta (-0.8) and Detroit (-1.2%). ), Cleveland (-0.7%).
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