Home prices in the San Francisco Bay Area plummeted faster from their peak than when they surged at the peak.
To wolf richter for wolf street.
The housing bubble 2 continues to deflate relentlessly no matter which data set you look at.today we S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index 3-month moving average of November home sales. registered in public records This mainly reflects transactions that took place from August to October.
Prices in all 20 cities included in the index have fallen since last month, continuing their decline from last spring or summer peaks.
The San Francisco Bay Area is the leader here. The single-family home index turned negative year-on-year, down 14% from its peak in May.
The Case-Shiller index is different from the median index. Use the “sales pairs” method to compare the current month’s sales to previously sold identical homes. Price changes are weighted based on when the previous sale was made and adjusted for home improvements and other factors (methodology). This “selling pair” method makes the Case-Shiller index a more reliable indicator than the median index, although it lags behind by several months.
The median index reflects the median price of all homes sold during the month, so it can be distorted by changes in the mix of homes sold. This becomes a big problem when there is a dramatic change in the market. Like 2022. But they are more recent.
And the median price index fell even more sharply.US-wide median value of all types of homes sold in Dec fell 11.3% from June peakToday, the National Case-Shiller Index (three-month moving average ending November) is down only 3.6% from its peak, according to the National Association of Realtors.
In the San Francisco Bay Area, Median 30% Plunge in December After Crazy March Peak, down 10% year-on-year. Today’s Bay Area Case-Shiller index — which reflects home sales in September, October and November — is down 14.4% from its peak and year-over-year he’s down 1.6%.
monthlytoday’s Case-Shiller index fell again in all 20 metros it covers.
- Phoenix: -1.9%
- Las Vegas: -1.7%
- San Francisco: -1.6%
- Seattle: -1.5%
- San Diego: -1.4%
- Dallas: -1.1%
- Tampa: -1.0%
from their peakranging from May to July, when house prices fell the most were:
- San Francisco Bay Area: -14.3%
- Seattle Metro: -13.5%
- San Diego Subway: -9.9%
- Phoenix Subway: -7.7%
- Denver Subway: -7.5%
- Los Angeles Subway: -7.4%
- Las Vegas Subway: -7.0%.
- Dallas Subway: -6.6%
San Francisco Bay Area: The “San Francisco” index covers the five counties of the San Francisco Bay Area, which consists of nine counties: San Francisco, part of Silicon Valley, part of East Bay, and part of North Bay.
- m/m: -1.6%.
- From May peak: -14.4%.
- YoY: -1.6%.
- Lowest price since June 2021.
- Prices plummeted faster than they surged.
- Down for the first time in half a year after peaking in May: -56.8 points
- Up 6 months to May peak: +53.4 points.
on the Seattle metro.
- m/m: -1.5%.
- -13.5% after peaking in May.
- YoY: +1.5%.
- Down for the first time in half a year after peaking in May: -55.9 points
- Up 6 months to May peak: +61.4 points.
San Diego Subway:
- m/m: -1.4%.
- -9.9% after peaking in May.
- YoY: +4.8%.
- Down for the first time in half a year after peaking in May: -42.5pt
- Up 6 months to May peak: +60.1 points.
phoenix metro:
- m/m: -1.9%.
- From June peak: -7.7%.
- YoY: +6.3%
- First down in 5 months from June peak: -26.4 points
- Five months up to June peak: +36.1 points.
Denver Subway:
- m/m: -0.8%.
- -7.5% after peaking in May.
- YoY: +6.1%.
- Down for the first time in half a year after peaking in May: -24.8pt
- Up 6 months to May peak: +42.6 points.
Los Angeles Metro:
- m/m: -0.9%.
- -7.4% after peaking in May.
- YoY: +4.4%.
- Down for the first time in half a year after peaking in May: -31.2 points
- Six months up to May peak: +47.8 points.
las vegas metro:
- m/m: -1.7%.
- -7.0% peaked in July.
- YoY: +6.6%
- Down for the first time in 4 months since the peak in July: -21.1 points
- Four months up to July peak: +25.5 points.
Dallas Subway:
- m/m: -1.1%.
- From peak in June: -6.6%.
- YoY: +10.9%
- First down in 5 months from June peak: -20.3 points
- Five months up to June peak: +39.4 points.
Portland Subway:
- m/m: -0.9%.
- -6.1% after peaking in May.
- YoY: +3.9%.
- Down for the first time in half a year after peaking in May: -20.9pt
- Up 6 months to May peak: +33.1 points.
boston subway:
- m/m: -0.7%.
- From June peak: -4.6%.
- YoY: +6.9%
- First down in 5 months from June peak: -14.6 points
- Five months up to June peak: +30.2 points.
Washington DC Metro:
- m/m: -0.3%.
- From June peak: -3.9%.
- YoY: +5.3%
- First down in 5 months since June peak: -12.1pt
- Five months up to June peak: +22.4 points.
Tampa Subway:
- m/m: -1.0%.
- July peak: -3.1%
- YoY: +16.9%
- Down for the first time in 4 months after peaking in July: -11.8pt
- Four months up to July peak: +31.4 points.
Miami Metro:
- m/m: -0.2%.
- July peak: -2.3%
- YoY: +18.4%
- Down for the first time in 4 months after peaking in July: -9.6pt
- Four months up to July peak: +37.8 points.
in the New York Metro:
- m/m: -0.1%.
- July peak: -1.6%
- YoY: +8.1%
- Four months down from July peak: -4.3 points
- Four months up to July peak: +12.1 points.
The Miami Subway in November had a Case-Shiller index value of 400 points. All Case-Shiller indices were set to 100 in 2000. This means that Miami home prices have risen 300% since 2000, despite recent declines. index.
Los Angeles and San Diego held the top spot at different times, but prices fell faster than Miami. Los Angeles’ index value fell to 392 and San Diego’s to 385.
In the New York metropolitan area, which has an index value of 272, house price inflation has reached 172% since 2000. This puts us at the bottom of the Most Splendid Housing Bubbles.
The remaining six metropolitan areas in the 20-City Case-Shiller Index have had significantly lower house price inflation since 2000 and do not fall into this line-up. Home prices have been falling for several months in their respective regions. In today’s “November” index, prices fell further month by month: Chicago (-0.6%), Charlotte (-0.7%), Minneapolis (-0.7%), Atlanta (-0.6), Detroit (-0.4). %), and Cleveland (-0.7%).
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