Home News SF home prices fully rebounded from pandemic lows — except in these neighborhoods

SF home prices fully rebounded from pandemic lows — except in these neighborhoods

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Home prices in most parts of San Francisco have recovered to strong growth over the past year and a half. After beating Early Pandemics — But some areas are much slower to recover than others. Data from Zillow..

Analysis of Housing value data From the January 2021 to May 2022 real estate listing website, you’ll see significant growth in almost every part of San Francisco. This shows a major reversal when home prices fell in 51 of the 75 neighborhoods analyzed between January 2020 and April 2021.

However, in most areas of downtown San Francisco, home prices have risen over the past year and a half, but recovery has been slower than in areas far from the city center. And almost every region of San Francisco lags behind the average increase in home prices across San Francisco’s metropolitan areas. It is defined by Giraud as the Bay Area County of Alameda, Contra Costa, San Francisco, San Mateo and Marine.

Also, in the Bay Area, despite the high demand from buyers and low inventory, The housing market is showing signs of “normalization” According to analysts, the surge in mortgage rates this year could stall or even reverse San Francisco’s recovery.

New data again show how a pandemic outflow from major city centers has plunged house prices and rents. This is a phenomenon announced by Stanford University economists Arjun Ramani and Nicholas Bloom in a May 2021 survey. It is called the “doughnut effect”. Jeff Tucker, senior economist at Zillow, said the pandemic “dramatically tilted the cost-benefit calculation of living in a larger home farther away by living in a smaller home closer to the city center.”

Nowhere was it as dramatic as San Francisco, Tucker said.

“In the Bay Area, America’s most expensive metropolitan area, revisiting these trade-offs has resulted in the most dramatic changes in rural rent and price dynamics seen anywhere in the country. “He said.

According to Tucker, there are several factors that can explain why San Francisco is so extreme. Some of them are already very high in San Francisco home prices, rents and incomes. Too many remote friendly employers. And, throughout most of the pandemics, there are relatively strict public health restrictions.

House prices across San Francisco fell by an average of 0.58% from January 2020 to April 2021, but increased by an average of 9.4% in the metropolitan areas of the five counties, according to Zillow data.

However, most parts of San Francisco have seen a turnaround over the past year and a half.

In particular, in Little Hollywood, sandwiched between Candlestick Point State Recreation Area and the Visitation Valley in southeastern San Francisco, home prices rose 27% between 2021 and 2022. In contrast, between 2020 and 2021, home prices rose by only 6.8%. Over the pandemic from 2020 to 2022, home prices increased by 25%.

Tenderloin was the only neighboring region that had the greatest negative impact on home prices in both periods and recorded a decrease of -0.3% between 2021 and 22. Still, it’s better than in 2020-21, when neighborhood home prices fell 11.8%. The decline over the entire period from 2020 to 22 was 9.1%.

House prices in the North Waterfront area adjacent to Embacadero increased by 2.4% from 2021 to 2022 and decreased by 2.8% from 2020 to 2021. However, throughout the pandemic period, neighborhoods were in the negative territory, down 1.3%.

Still, many areas near downtown have made comebacks in the last year and a half. In Mission Bay, home prices fell 7.9% between 2020 and 2021, while home prices rose 5.6% between 2021 and 2022. At Nobhill, home prices fell 6% between 2020 and 2021, but turned to 6% growth between 2021 and 2022.

According to Zillow data, the average rate of increase in home prices in 2021-22 was 16.2% across San Francisco, compared to 26% in the metropolitan areas of the five counties.

According to Tucker, annual price increases across the country and in most regions were higher than in the previous year from early 2021 to early 2022, reaching record highs in April and then beginning to decline in recent weeks.

He said the main driving force was more people competing to buy a home.

“High levels of housing demand are the first explanation for the high baseline of rising neighborhood prices from 2021 to 2022,” said Tucker.

From late 2021 to early 2022 in San Francisco, most adults were vaccinated and offices were reopened, so there was at least a partial rollback in the distribution of the “doughnut effect” of demand from the city’s core areas. “He said.

“Activity in the city has revived, which has led to a recovery in the demand for homes in the center of the city,” he said.

At Forest Hill, just west of Twin Peaks, home prices rose sharply, rising 26% between 2021 and 2022. From 2020 to 2021, home prices rose 5.2% in neighboring areas.

Cow Hollow and Marina have seen significant growth in both home prices since 2020-2021, with home prices falling by -9.8% and -9.2%, respectively, in all of San Francisco’s neighborhoods. Cow Hollow home prices increased 12.4% from 2021 to 2022, showing 2.7% growth across the 2020-22 period, and Marina home prices increased 18.3% from 2021 to 2022, 2020. It has grown by 7.3% over the last 22 years. Limit.

Presidio has seen the largest growth surge in the last year and a half compared to the pandemic as a whole. From 2021 to 2022, it increased by 15.5%.

But as mortgage rates continue to rise, these profits could slow down, Tucker said.

“In San Francisco, at least prices are very likely to level off, and a gradual decline is not out of the question,” he said. When interest rates last rose in 2018-19, San Francisco home prices were He said it had fallen. And San Jose.

“This suggests that housing demand is particularly sensitive to Bay Area interest rates,” Tucker said. “Mortgage rates and home prices are significantly higher than in late 2018, so you shouldn’t be surprised at the temporary drop in home prices in San Francisco.”

Kelly Fan is a staff writer at the San Francisco Chronicle. Email: [email protected] twitter: @KellieHwang

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