Oregon’s housing market may have cooled slightly, but it’s certainly not cold. At least not yet.
Drew Coleman, founder of Portland-based Opto Real Estate and former president of the Oregon Real Estate Association, said, “I would like to say that the market has gone from incandescent to incandescent, but it’s definitely in the cooling phase. It’s in,’ he said.
As the US Federal Reserve (Fed) continues to raise its benchmark interest rate (it raised another 0.75 points last week), mortgage payments have risen, and some homebuyers would have accepted if rates were lower. I am staying away from a possible deal.
The idea behind the rate hike was to cool prices. Some markets in Oregon have seen the following results: Realtor.com, Deschutes County saw the largest decline in median list prices, from $777,000 in May to $707,000 in August. The area has some of the highest median list prices in Oregon, thanks to housing demand in Bend.
Multnomah County also dropped slightly, from $545,000 in May to $525,000 in August.
However, these declines are negligible compared to pre-pandemic prices. In May 2019, the Deschutes County median list price was $523,000 and the Multnomah County list price was $461,000.
The homes have also been on the market for a bit longer than they did earlier this year. In Deschutes County, the median number of days a home was on the market in May was 29. By August it had jumped to 50. Multnomah went from 28 to 38 median days.
“We are just trying to get back to normal,” said Noah Brunton, president of the WFG National Title Insurance Company’s Oregon office. “We’re trying to get back to price appreciation levels and inventory levels closer to what we had in 2019.”
Inventory on Oregon’s active housing list began declining around the time the pandemic began, reaching a low point in January 2021. Stocks picked up momentum again that summer, following normal seasonal trends, but declined again by January 2022.
But August brought some encouraging numbers. In Oregon, he has nearly 12,000 homes on the market, an increase of nearly 3,000 from the same month last year. The inventory still falls short of what it was in August 2019, when his 18,300 homes in Oregon were for sale.
According to Brunton, the housing market is like a pendulum, swinging as hard as it can in each direction before stabilizing.
“So I think the big question is how far this pendulum will swing. [get to] normal? ” said Blanton.
So how long? Opt Real Estate’s Coleman says he has some ideas. He looks at the rate of increase, which measures how much home values have risen.
“Nationwide, the top 100 economists forecast that 2022 will end with a rise of about 9.3% nationally, cooling to a very typical historic 4.19% rise in 2023,” Coleman said. said.
These predictions go even further. National Real Estate Association.
“Historically, we like 3% to 5% lift,” Coleman said. “It helps homeowners get equity in their investments, but it also allows people to enter a much better market than if they had a 20-25% uplift.”
Coleman said modern homebuyers in Oregon worry about losing their money if they buy at the top of the market, at a time when many homebuyers are offering well above asking prices. No need to.
“People who overpaid a lot to buy a home could definitely lose a little bit of their wealth if they overpaid more than the current market can bear,” Coleman said. “Over time, I’m less nervous about it…even if it’s a bit of a setback, usually over time, it works very well for you.”