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Housing starts data raises 5th recession red flag

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I am raising the red flag of the fifth recession today. Census Bureauof May housing start data.. Housing starts missed estimates, but showed positive corrections.Housing starts 1,549,000 people And the housing permit came in 1.695 billion.

Housing completion data 1,465 million And more untreated homes have been completed.However, considering Wednesday Builder Confidence Index When Mortgage rates Above 6%, it’s time to raise the red flag of the fifth recession. This is because builders struggle to grow their homes at such high interest rates.

Data from NAHB / Wells Fargo Builder research is positive and always important as it incorporates the reality of today’s market into the equation. However, the latest does not take into account today’s higher rates.

from NAHB:

From the census: Housing Permits Privately owned housing units licensed by building permits in May had a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,695,000. This is 7.0% below the revised April rate of 1,823,000, but 0.2% above the May 2021 rate of 1,691,000. The rate of approval for single-family homes in May was 1,048,000. This is 5.5% below the April revision of 1,109,000. Unit approvals for buildings with 5 or more units in May were 592,000.

Housing permits have never collapsed, but permit data is negative. Higher rates can have a huge impact on builders as they try to find the current home buyer by canceling. Next, you need to manage what you can and cannot sell.

From the census: Housing Starts Privately owned housing starts in May were seasonally adjusted at an annual rate of 1,549,000. This is 14.4 percent (± 8.9 percent) below the revised April estimate of 1,810,000 and 3.5 percent (± 10.7 percent) * below the May 2021 rate of 1,605,000. The start rate of detached houses in May was 1,051,000. This is 9.2% (± 11.0%) * below the April revision of 1,157,000. The May rate for buildings with 5 or more units was 469,000.

This dataline hasn’t crashed, but as mortgage rates rise, the ability to grow from these levels is limited. The future story is how many current homebuilders can sell and when they feel comfortable building more single homes. Building an apartment is different from a single house. In a sense, robbing potential homebuyers stimulates rental demand and keeps current renters in their homes longer.


From the census: Home Completion The completion of privately owned homes in May was seasonally adjusted at an annual rate of 1,465,000. This is 9.1 percent (± 22.6 percent) * above the revised April estimate of 1,343,000 and 9.3 percent (± 19.0 percent) * above the May 2021 rate of 1,340,000. The completion rate of detached houses in May was 1,043,000. This is 2.8 percent (± 13.6 percent) * above the April correction rate of 1,015,000. The May rate for buildings with 5 or more units was 417,000.

Home completion is one of the worst stories for the housing market. The ability to complete the house has taken forever. Thus, the completion data is currently being picked up to greet the start of the falling home. Historically, the completion of a house moves with the start of the house, allowing data. However, supply shortages have delayed the timely completion of homes. As shown below, housing completion data, unlike 2002-2005, have not been very successful over the years. However, this dataline should grow a bit by the time you complete a home with buyers.

Contractors’ confidence is declining, new home sales are declining, housing starts and permits are declining, but prices continue to rise. The trend is your friends until the rate goes down or the builder gives enough discounts to win some buyers. One thing to keep in mind is that new home sales haven’t had a credit boom, so we’re working from a level not far from past lows. We are already below the 2000 recession level.

5th recession red flag

My recession model is a progressive model. It was created to show you when we go into recession and get out of recession. It was not created for the glorious hounds recession callers who time stamp dates on recession phones.

At this point in 2022, no recession data are available at this time. There has never been a vigorous recession where the levels of employment, sales and production were positive. Waited for my daughter to fall asleep. It created a lot of jobs in the first half of 2022. Employment is an indicator of delay, but other data were positive. So, as some believe, the recession isn’t just in the two negative GDP quarters.

Traditionally, home start-ups, permits, and new home sales have been in recession. As you can see Federal Reserve teeth Hiking fee Don’t make it any more complicated to affect demand. Housing began in 2018 and sales of new homes were hit, but at that time there were only three red flags in the recession and 2020 was approaching. Now that the background has changed so much, I am raising the fifth recession flag.

All that remains is the sixth recession red flag, a major economic indicator. If this continues for 4-6 months, you can continue to monitor the recession. It’s a completely different conversation at that point. During the year of the housing bubble All six flags appeared in 2006So, it was sometime before the unemployment recession.

Each business cycle is unique and we must adapt to new living variables. If mortgage rates fall, this will be a stabilizer for the housing market. Until then, get all housing data lines and economic data at once for a week.

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