Home News Housing markets labeled ‘high’ risk of a home price drop just spiked 73%—find your local market using this interactive map

Housing markets labeled ‘high’ risk of a home price drop just spiked 73%—find your local market using this interactive map

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U.S. housing market is slowing-fast.A combination of record rises in home prices — this has skyrocketed 37% in the last 2 years— And the mortgage surge —Increased from 3.2% to 5.88% in the last 6 months— Ended the pandemic housing boom.We are looking down A sharp decline in housing “activity” since 2006..

It ’s fair to call this shift, Housing modificationsIt is premature to call this a housing bust or housing collapse.Now we are watching U.S. housing market is trying to find equilibrium middle Mortgage surge rate.. If things get messed up, the Federal Reserve can always intervene and put downward pressure on mortgage rates again.

That said, the chilling housing market is likely to cause house prices to fall. At least at the regional level.

Between April 2022 and April 2023 CoreLogic predicts U.S. home prices are ready to rise another 5.9%.. However, not all housing markets are so lucky. luck We contacted CoreLogic to see if it would offer the largest regional housing market rating in the country. Among the 392 regional housing markets it examined, CoreLogic We found that in 45 markets, local home prices are more than 50% likely to fall in the next 12 months. last month, Only 26 markets fell into the camp.. This is a 73% one month jump.

To determine the potential for regional home prices to fall, CoreLogic assesses factors such as income growth forecasts, unemployment forecasts, consumer confidence, debt-to-income ratios, affordability, mortgage rates, and inventory levels. Did. CoreLogic then categorized the regional housing market into one of five categories, grouped by the potential for home prices in that particular market to fall in the next 12 months. The groups of real estate research firms used in the June analysis are:

View this interactive chart on Fortune.com

Of the 392 regional housing markets measured by CoreLogic, 159 were in the “very low” risk group. Another 152 housing markets landed in the “low” group, 36 markets were eligible for the “medium” group, and 41 markets belonged to the “high” group. CoreLogic has classified only four markets as “very likely” to reduce prices. Bend, me. Bremerton, Washington. Lake Havasu City, Arizona.

“Prices are more likely to fall in recent months as mortgage rates continue to skyrocket and consumer confidence is shattered by high inflation and fears of a recession. 50% chance of price declines. The number of markets that exceeds [nearly] “Doubled,” said Selma Hepp, Deputy Chief Economist at Core Logic. Fortunee.

The odds of falling home prices remain low, the third consecutive month of rising odds of falling prices in the region. That trend may continue. One reason: The June analysis uses April housing data. Of course, April was a much stronger housing market than we saw in May. No need to look for more than Provo, 47.8% of home retailers lowered their list prices in May. When CoreLogic runs the analysis next month, the number of markets at risk of price adjustments could increase even further.

View this interactive chart on Fortune.com

Historically, the pandemic housing boom has pushed the US housing market to its affordable limits. Two separate analyzes, one Moody’s Analytics And other Economist at Florida Atlantic UniversityYou can see that most of the US regional housing market is currently “overrated”.

CoreLogic agrees.

According to the data provided to luck, CoreLogic considers that 70.7% of the 392 largest regional housing markets in the United States were “overrated” in April. March, 67.9% of the market was “overrated” label. In February 64.7% of the market..

Why is it important? Simply being “overvalued” does not guarantee price adjustments, but it can be annoying if you move too far from the economic fundamentals on which home prices are based. Rising house prices cannot outpace income growth forever. not to mention, “Overestimation” is one of the two key factors needed for a housing bubble... The other is speculation.

The housing market is changing rapidly. Follow us on Twitter for the latest information. @NewsLambert..

This story was originally Fortune.com

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