Home News Housing Bubble Getting Ready to Pop: Pending Sales Plunge in June, Inventory Jumps, Price Reductions Spike amid Holy-Moly Mortgage Rates

Housing Bubble Getting Ready to Pop: Pending Sales Plunge in June, Inventory Jumps, Price Reductions Spike amid Holy-Moly Mortgage Rates

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Pent-up supplies suddenly appear – those vacant homes that no one has counted as vacant.

To Wolfrichter For Wolf Street..

It has been said that prices have skyrocketed for the past two years due to lack of stock for sale and lack of housing. Then other people like me don’t market old homes after people buy new homes, and these people currently own two or three homes and they go I’ve pointed out many times that prices have skyrocketed by more than 20% or 30% a year, riding the hottest real estate market to date, and then selling those vacant homes that no one counted as vacant. Probably.

And because they already lived in a house, they were able to sell their vacant house without having to buy another. This is the “shadow inventory” currently on the market at the very moment when mortgage rates are skyrocketing and sales are plummeting. And to move things, price cuts are skyrocketing.

Supply stagnation, sales plunge: This is just the beginning, but it’s happening.

The number of active lists has skyrocketed June increased by 20% from May, increased by 19% from a year ago, increased by 8% in May, and then increased for the second consecutive year, both of which are the year-on-year increases since June. 2019.There were about 98,000 people more According to data from the National Association of Real Estate Agents, homes for sale in June from a year ago (data are realtor.com):

The active list has skyrocketed for two reasons:

ONE, June pending sales plummeted 16% year-on-yearAfter a 12% drop in May and a 9% drop in April, potential buyers lost interest in soaring home prices and mortgage rates. These are pre-transaction lists at various stages of the sales process. June decreased for 10 consecutive months compared to the previous year. In June, the NAR reported:May’s “closed” sales also declined for 10 consecutive months.. And this is not a precursor to closed sales in June.

TWO increases new listings in June After June 2019, it became the second highest house in the last few years with 562,000 units.Interestingly, the new list Rise in JuneIn normal years, they peaked in May and fell in June. I circled the previous June (data via realtor.com).

Price cuts surge Increased by 50% from May to June About twice Year-over-year as sellers are trying to show buyers as foot traffic has declined and the bidding war has receded into nostalgic memories. This is a sudden reset. But more and more sellers are embarking on new realities. The price has to go where the buyer is, the buyer is somewhere, but much lower (data via realtor.com):

Holy Molly Mortgage Interest Rate – Called this way because people say between their teeth when they first see the mortgage payments for the home they want to buy – about 6% of 30-year fixed-rate mortgages are in 2020 It will be about twice as long as the year. (Data via realtor.com).

This type of mortgage rate has doubled for so long and has become a toxic mixture as home prices have skyrocketed by more than 40% over the same two years. You have to give something, it can’t be a buyer – they can’t, so they’re boxed – but they’re sellers. Or there is no transaction.

and, can Purchases, notorious cash buyers, they I do not want to do it Buy at these prices now that madness is screaming from the market. It was a completely crazy market, but at an insane peak, no one wants to overpay.

A big difference in the list between the 50 largest metros.

Of the largest 50 metropolitan areas, the number of active lists in June surged most in Austin (+ 144%), Phoenix (+ 113%), and Raleigh (112%). In the other 31 metropolitan areas, the active list has surged by double digits. Also, the active list has fallen into just a handful of metros, centered around Chicago (-13%), Virginia Beach (-14%) and Miami (-16%).

This table is sorted by year-over-year rate of change (data via realtor.com) in the active list.

Largest Metro, Active List, June 2022 Year-on-year rate of change
Austin-Texas Round Rock 144%
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Arizona 113%
Raleigh, NC 112%
Salt Lake City, Utah 98%
Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, Tennessee 86%
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 72%
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 66%
Sacramento-Roseville-Arden-Arcade, CA 65%
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas 62%
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, Colorado 58%
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Florida 56%
Tucson, Arizona 55%
San Antonio-New Braunfels, Texas 54%
San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA 46%
Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, Nevada 45%
Jacksonville, Florida 38%
Oklahoma City, OK 37%
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC 37%
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA 34%
Memphis, TN-MS-AR 33%
Orlando-Kissimi-Sanford, Florida 31%
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, Oregon-WA 31%
Kansas City, Missouri 28%
Birmingham-Hoover, Alabama 26%
San Diego-Carlsbad, CA twenty five%
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, Georgia twenty three%
Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, Indiana twenty two%
Louisville / Jefferson County, Kentucky twenty two%
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA 20%
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, Michigan 18%
New Orleans-Metairie, Louisiana 16%
Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls, NY 13%
Columbus, Ohio 12%
Houston-Woodlands-Sugar Land, Texas Ten%
Providence-Warwick, Rhode Island 6%
St. Louis, Missouri-IL Five%
Cincinnati, Oh-KY-IN Five%
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania Four%
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 2%
Baltimore-Columbia-Touson, Maryland 1%
Boston-Cambridge-Newton, Massachusetts-NH 0%
New York-Newark-Jersey City, New York-NJ-PA 0%
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI 0%
Cleveland-Elyria, Ohio -2%
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD -2%
Rochester, NY -Four%
Milwaukee-Walkisha-West Allis, Wisconsin -Four%
Richmond, Virginia -6%
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, Illinois-Wisconsin -13%
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, Virginia-NC -14%
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, Florida -16%

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