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Home values 38.5% above what might be expected

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Home prices in Metro Denver are much higher than they would have been without a pandemic, and while premiums are wide, they aren’t as extreme as in many other places. Monthly study from Florida Atlantic University And Florida International University.

According to the survey, Metro Denver is ranked 37th out of 100 major metros in April, with home prices 38.5% higher than expected based on long-term trends. Denver’s expected value is $ 461,734, based on trends in the Zillow Home Value Index dating back to 1996. Instead, it’s $ 639,316.

The Colorado Springs gap is even higher, at 45.9%, with an estimated price of $ 333,261 and an actual home price index of $ 486,182. It was ranked as the 23rd highest premium.

In 15 metropolitan areas, home prices are more than 50% above what is expected from historical trends. Boise, Idaho is the most overrated metro with 72.6%, followed by Austin, Texas with 67.7% and Ogden, Utah with 64.7%. Las Vegas, Atlanta and Phoenix were the three most overrated markets:

Home prices tend to cycle through periods of overvalue and undervalue, but eventually return to a long-term trend. During the housing bubble in the early 2000s, the overestimation approached 20% in Metro Denver. From 2008 to 2016, Metro Denver home prices were run at a discounted trend. Smaller premiums returned in 2016, but began to tighten again in 2019 and 2020.

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