Home News Home prices are falling faster now than in 2006—Redfin’s CEO just revealed why

Home prices are falling faster now than in 2006—Redfin’s CEO just revealed why

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of pandemic housing boom unleashed “Investment Maniac” It’s unlike anything we’ve seen in the US housing market since the housing bubble of the 2000s.Average joes poured into the market in anticipation of construction Airbnbs empire.Institutional investors, etc. Home Partners of America owned by Blackstone, rapidly expanded its portfolio of single-family homes. Eager to strike while the iron is hot, home builders have built a record number of “spec” homes.On the other hand, Opendoor and Jirostrengthened its algorithmic home-buying program.

Fast forward to October and investor enthusiasm has given way to investor panic.of Housing adjustments in progressUS home prices fell 1.6% from June to August— scared many investors to the sidelines. This marked the first decline in domestic house prices since 2012.

Investor pullback makes sense. Most housing economists don’t foresee a major correction due to the collapse of the Great Financial Crisis, where U.S. house prices fell 27% between 2006 and 2012, but they acknowledge it. . This house price fix It has risen sharply since 2006. The lagging Case-Shiller index already shows that house prices fell 8.2% in 2006. San Francisco.

For Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman, investor frenzy in pandemic housing boom helps explain Why Home Prices Are Correcting Faster This TimeHistorically speaking, house prices are sticky. Sellers simply do not want to lower prices unless economic reasons, such as oversupply, force them to do so. That’s less true for institutional investors and builders. If you think the price is going to go down, you want to be the first to get your hands on it. The fact that investors have taken a higher share of buyers due to the pandemic housing boom is ultimately making the U.S. housing market more vulnerable to a faster swingdown, Kellman said.

“When the shiitake mushroom hits the fan, [investors] I want to go out first The way to do this is to identify where sales are lowest and drop below his 2%.And if it doesn’t sell in the first weekend, lower the price. [again]says Kelman.

In other words, Kerman Redfin’s iBuyer Businesswill help push home prices up faster during booms and push prices down faster during corrections.

“My view is that builders and iBuyers have more inventory, which leads to faster reconciliations. We are one of them, iBuyers,” says Kelman. “We quickly find that fewer people are visiting our website and fewer people are signing up for tours…we are buying with our own money, or worse, with borrowed money. We’re putting the $350 million worth of homes we bought on the market, and what we’ve always told our investors is to protect your balance sheet by acting fast. No. We immediately started marking things down.”

Why did investors flock to the housing market during the pandemic (see charts above and below)? The combination of low mortgage rates, record rises, and skyrocketing rents has been attractive to investors. It has attracted everyone from home flippers to family landlords to Wall Street juggernauts.

But let’s be clear: investment enthusiast That alone didn’t boost U.S. house prices by 43% during the pandemic housing boom. Instead, record home price gains were fueled by a perfect storm.Ability to work from anywhere We’ve seen white-collar professionals pony up for bigger properties and take off to far-flung markets like Boiseand historically low mortgage rates, Bottomed out at 2.65% in January 2021, made mortgage payments more affordable even as prices rose. All of this, of course, comes at a time when inventory is low, favoring first-time millennial homebuyers.

in the meantime Soaring mortgage rates It has caused a historic drop in buyer demand, but has not led to a significant surge in inventories. Most homeowners aren’t scared. So how do house prices fall even when inventory levels are tight? That’s because leveraged investors don’t want to play the ‘wait and see’ game. And if one house falls below the comp price, the comp for the whole area will decrease.

“As soon as demand weakened, we marked down properties, which drove prices down. We’re doing an equivalent sale right now that we’ll talk about,” says Kelman.

Of course, the so-called investment mania during the pandemic housing boom wasn’t a panacea.Investor frenzy was particularly intense in western boomtowns such as Phoenix, Austin and Las Vegas. Why the bubbled housing market is now undergoing a dramatic fix.

Look no further This property in North Las VegasIn May, Opendoor purchased the home for $540,800. Just weeks later, Opendoor put him up for sale in July for $581,000. But Opendoor was too late. The Las Vegas housing market had already overturned. Fast forward to October and a series of price cuts brought the list price to $472,000 and the listing was taken off the market.

At first glance, you might think that Opendoor could soon lose about 13% on this property. not exactly. When iBuyers like Redfin and Opendoor buy a home, they charge the seller a “service fee” in exchange for a fast transaction. On the one hand, this mitigates the iBuyer’s potential losses. On the other hand, that buffer means iBuyers aren’t too afraid of price cuts.

Not everyone agrees with Kelman.In May, a Zillow official said: luck that The company’s failed iBuyer programZillow, which is infamous for overpaying for homes before announcing its withdrawal from the program in November, did nothing to boost U.S. house prices during the pandemic housing boom. In Zillow’s eyes, the purchase program was too small to do so.

While Kerman attribute Speed ​​of housing price correction This was driven by higher mortgage rates for investors and builders, and other factors are also at play, he said.First of all, he said the U.S. housing market is More vulnerable to mortgage rates in the years after the 2008 housing crashSecond, he says the housing crash has taught sellers and buyers alike that home prices can actually fall.

“I think the religion people had from 1946 to 2008 that house prices were always going up is dead. My parents believed it was literally unthinkable. [home] Prices will come down,” says Kelman. But that “religion” of his housing, he says, was shattered by the 2008 crash. “So people react [now] in addition [correction] With most PTSD, they recede much faster.

Where will home prices go next?

groups like freddie mac When Mortgage Bankers Association We expect home prices to level off over the next few years.and like a company Moody’s Analytics When goldman sachs We project a nationwide decline of about 10% from peak to valley. If a recession hits, Moody’s predicts a nationwide decline he’ll put between 15% and 20%. Simply put, the outlook for home prices is all over the place.

Need more housing data? Follow me on Twitter @News Lambert.

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