In the midst of shortages, soaring prices and long lead times, there is now a new reality of housing market transformation.
To Wolfrichter For Wolf Street..
Shortages of all kinds, explosive prices, and long lead times have disrupted the construction industry since late 2020 and have grown into a crescendo of turmoil in 2021 and 2022. We have reported about itAnd homebuilders were complaining about it in their revenue call, and commercial real estate developers were screaming about it and Virtually wants a recession to end shortages, price spikes, and delays.. It was messed up.
Professional home remodeler..
And there’s another side to this: professional home remodelers, and how they had to adapt to pricing turmoil and shortages-and in a mortgage soaring housing market. Risk fees they may encounter under these conditions when they begin to change.
In a survey of professional home remodelers rather than DIY companies, an independent research company John Barnes Real Estate Consulting We have found that we are facing the worst shortages and longest lead times in appliances, windows and cabinets. 64% of the professional homebuilders surveyed say it takes more than 16 weeks to get home appliances. Another 12% said it would take 12-16 weeks to get the appliance (in total, 74% said it would take more than 12 weeks to get the appliance).
|The home remodeler states the following lead times:||12-16 weeks||16 weeks or more||12 weeks in total|
How they adapt to the “wild housing market situation”.
John Barnes asked professional home remodelers how they are adapting to “wild home market conditions,” and then highlighted the top seven most common answers.
- Remodelers are raising prices in response to sharp rises in material prices, severe labor shortages, and very long delinquency in demand.
- Faced with unprecedented product lead times and unpredictable delays, mods are ordering materials sooner, long before work begins.
- Remodelers are becoming logistics and supply chain experts because large projects require very close coordination with vendors, subcontractors, and clients.
- Remodelers delay the start date of projects while waiting for products and materials to arrive on site.
- As remodelers overcome unexpected delays, many are filling schedule gaps with small projects to maintain cash flow.
- When prices peak and demand can slow, there are signs of concern that remodelers are hoarding materials, and building material prices can fall.
- Remodelers are hooking homeowners into unexpected price increases by shortening quotes, adding strict escalation clauses, and re-bidding materials before signing a contract.
Item # 6 is particularly interesting given the transformation of the housing market. Professional mods stockpile materials to deal with shortages and eternal lead times when material prices “peak and demand can slow”.
Three major risks for professional home remodelers..
Given these strategies to address shortages and explosive prices as the housing market improves, John Barnes identifies three major risks for professional home remodelers heading into the second half of 2022. Did.
Customer sticker shock and pushback: “Customers are seeing significant price increases from modders and they are starting to recede. Beware of other projects that reach a” pause “. “
Backlog disappearing: “Some remodelers are currently receiving deposits for the 2023 project. However, if home prices soften or fall, some of this future demand may disappear.”
Mortgage surge rate: “In the short term, a surge in interest rates threatens the ability of homeowners to take advantage of record-breaking home wealth and write large five-digit and six-digit remodeling checks.”
Cash Out at Holy Molly Mortgage Rate to Pay for Remodeling Project refis?
I call them “Holy Molly” mortgage rates. That’s because it’s healthy when people buy a home at the current price and try to calculate the mortgage payment at the current mortgage interest rate.
Interest rates on these holy mortgages have generally disrupted mortgage refi. Most of their business has disappeared, resulting in a major layoff in the mortgage industry. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, mortgage applications have fallen 76% from a year ago, reaching the lowest level since 2000 (data from Investing.com).
And interest rates on these holy mortgages also caused cashout refi applications to plummet by 53% from the previous year. AEI Housing Market Index In June, who would refinance a 3% mortgage with a 5% mortgage or a 6% mortgage and withdraw $ 200,000 on the mortgage?
If an existing 30-year mortgage with a balance of 3% and $ 500,000 is refinanced with a cashout refinancing mortgage with a balance of $ 700,000, the payment will almost double from $ 2,108 per month to $ 4,197 per month. And for most people, doubling mortgage payments is an exclusion zone.
Therefore, if a homeowner has to make a cash out refinement to pay for a home remodeling project, the home remodeling project has serious problems.
It’s probably okay if the homeowner can make payments using the significantly reduced securities account balance. Alternatively, you could rely on something like your next permanent rally to borrow a margin loan and receive a margin call in the middle of a remodeling project. This will be an additional marriage stress test to overcome.
But if homeowners have 1% to 3%, or cash that earns nothing, they may plow it into a home remodeling project with a conscience.
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