And this was in the midst of a summer rally when mortgage rates fell to 5%, stocks rose, the Fed “turned around,” and the good times started again.
To wolf richter for wolf street.
The home sales that ended in August came days and months before they ended. That is, around and before the peak of the summer bear market rally in mortgage rates and stocks, starting in mid-June and ending in mid-August.
By mid-June, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was over 6%, doubling in less than a year. And stocks plummeted. But then deniers of tightening agitated, trolling the media with nonsense saying the Fed was “dovish”, saying it was “turning around” in September, and declaring that inflation was “over” and so on. Rebounding from mid-June lows, mortgage rates fell from 6% to 5%, and at one point he was just below 5%. And Realtors were already talking about how the housing market was recovering.
It turns out that this was all a hoax. Mortgage interest rates are now well above 6%. Fed Chairman Powell finally got everyone through In his speech at Jackson Hole that the Fed will tighten more. Inflation worsened and shifted to services that are difficult to eliminateAnd the stock market finally saw inflation and high interest rates, gave up most of its bear market rally.
But at the time, it seemed real enough to many. In the San Francisco Bay Area and Southern California, where the housing market is heavily dependent on the stock market, there were upside expectations amid a re-emergence in stock prices, plummeting mortgage rates and a lavishly imagined Fed pivot. Those were good times.instead of California Real Estate Association For August:
Prices fell further. Four of his five Bay Area counties saw prices drop year-over-year. Sales volumes were dismal, albeit slightly down from the July crash. Time to market nearly doubled year-on-year. And supply surged year-on-year.
San Francisco County leads:
sales volumesingle-family homes (SFH): -24% y/y, slightly below July’s -26%.
average time in the market: July 15th to 20th, increased from 11th of the previous year.
supply Unsold inventory: 2.2 months, same as July, 1.7 months a year ago.
Mediansingle-family homes: $1.635 million, lowest August price since 2019 ($1.6 million): -3.8% from July, down for the fifth straight month, -20.6% from peak in March, y/y – 11.6% -years.
In San Francisco, prices typically reach seasonal lows in January or February. This will be interesting. The green line connects his August.
These are significant price drops in San Francisco. Yes, the medians are volatile and we are examining them with great care and trends should be seen over time. I’m here.
A quick glance at the chart shows that the median eventually bounces back again, zigzagging down instead of going in a straight line.
Southern Silicon Valley, Santa Clara County.
sales volumeSingle-family homes: -28% y/y, less depressing than -46% in July.
average time in the market: July 14th to 16th, increased from 8th of the previous year.
supply Unsold inventory: 2.0 months in July, compared with 1.4 months a year ago.
Mediansingle-family homes, $1.65 million: -5.2% from July, down 4 months in a row, -15.4% from peak in April, -0.3% y/y:
Northern Silicon Valley, San Mateo County.
sales volumeSingle-family homes: -30% y/y, slightly darker than -35% in Jul.
average time in the market: July 12th to 14th, increased from 9th of the previous year.
supply Unsold inventory: 2.3 months in July, compared with 1.5 months a year ago.
Mediansingle-family homes, $1.95 million: -0.8% from July, down four months in a row, -14.5% from peak in April, +1.3% y/y:
Alameda County, East Bay.
sales volumeSingle-family homes: -30% y/y, down from -35% in July.
average time in the market: From July 13th to 16th, an increase from 9th of the previous year.
supply Unsold inventory: 2.1 months in July, compared with 1.3 months a year ago.
Mediansingle-family homes, $1.23 million: -8.2% from July, down three months in a row, -14% from peak in May, -5.4% y/y:
East Bay, Contra Costa County.
sales volumesingle-family homes: -27% y/y, worse than -36% in July.
average time in the market: July 13th to 18th, more than double from 9th of the previous year.
supply Unsold inventory: 2.3 months in July, compared with 1.4 months a year ago.
Mediansingle-family homes, $870,000: -3.6% from July, fourth straight month of decline, -10% from peak in April, -2.2% y/y:
Southern California trying to catch up.
Across Southern California, home prices fell for the third month in a row, down -5.9% from their peak, limiting year-over-year gains to 4.6%. So here are the three largest counties. In San Diego, the median is down nearly 5% from his July. It fell 2.5% in Orange, but rose in Los Angeles.Let’s get started San Diego’s Greatest Housing Bubble.
San Diego County.
sales volume Percentage of single-family homes: -28% YoY, less dire than -41% in July.
average time in the market: July 10th to 15th, almost double from the 8th of the previous year.
supply Unsold inventory: 3.1 months in July, compared to 1.7 months a year ago, 2.5 months.
Mediansingle-family homes, $885,000: -4.8% from July, 4th straight month of decline, -9% from April peak, up +6.0% y/y:
sales volume Percentage of single-family homes: -30% YoY, less dire than -39% in July.
average time in the market: From July 13th to 17.5th, more than double from 8th of the previous year.
supply Unsold inventory: 2.5 months, 3.0 months in July, 1.6 months a year ago.
Mediansingle-family homes, $1.2 million: -2.5% from July, down for 4th straight month, -9% from peak in April, up +9.1% y/y:
in Los Angeles County.
sales volume Share of single-family homes: -29% y/y, slightly lower than -32% in July.
Average time in market: July 13th to 16th, almost double from 9th the previous year.
supply Unsold inventory: 3.3 months in July, compared with 2.0 months a year ago.
Mediansingle-family homes, $855,000: +1.0% from July, -3.5% from peak last September, +3.0% y/y:
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