Home News Buyers & sellers feeling stuck in the housing market

Buyers & sellers feeling stuck in the housing market

by admin
0 comment

i love the original back to the future movie. You too? Well, I can’t help but think of the current housing market compared to the movie. Sellers tended to get stuck in the past hoping the market would be hotter than it is now. I am stuck in the future in hopes of doing so.

The tension is real: The tension between buyers and sellers is real, but the solution is simple. Pay attention to statistics and let numbers shape your perception. It’s important to be realistic about the markets where buyers and sellers actually exist. Staying connected to the present is the goal here, rather than clinging to a hot past or a cold future. Ultimately, the seller needs to listen to the buyer, be open to the idea of ​​offering credit, and realize that the property will very likely sell for less than the list price. Buyers can spend more time shopping, but they also know it’s not January 2008. In January 2008, a property in the area sold for a whopping 13% below its original list price.

Thank you for being here. What are you watching in your area?

Upcoming (public) speaking gigs:
9/08/22 SAFE CU “Stats & Mimosa” (sold out)
10/07/22 Market update by SAR (Sign up here – at Zoom)
10/13/22 Midtown market update (details undecided)

—–——– Deep Market Update (For those interested) ———––

Here are some quick thoughts on the latest stats. I have a lot to talk about. Scroll quickly or digest slowly.

Sharing policy: We would appreciate it if you could share some of these images on your social channels or newsletter.If it helps, here it is 6 ways to share content (Don’t copy verbatim). Thank you.

how i describe the market now

Quick version:

1) Buyers are gaining momentum.
2) Sellers are losing power.
3) The rapid change of the last few months is starting to level off.
4) Seasonal price declines are becoming more pronounced.
5) Currently 25% of the market is missing.
6) Many statistics are now below normal pre-pandemic levels.
7) Uncertainty still exists in light of rates above 6%.

Longer version:

1) Buyers are gaining power:

Buyers, who basically had no choice but to follow the seller’s wishes last year, are now able to spend more time shopping, often paying below list prices, and receiving more credit from sellers. About 40% of last month’s sales included concessions in Sacramento County, which is a sharp change from the previous month. I expect this number to increase in the fall.

Line chart showing percentage of sales with concessions in Sacramento County over the last few years.
2) Sellers are losing power.

The seller had time to confirm eight offers from the weekend, but the ship has sailed. About half of all active listings are marked down from their original listing price. .

Table showing price reductions by county for the Sacramento area

3) The rapid change of the last few months is starting to level off.

The market has shown sharp changes in sales volume, but over the past month or so the numbers have started to level off a bit. This means the market is stabilizing rather than another month of massive change. Sure, volume is still down about 25% from last year, but the market looks a little more balanced these days. Of course, this could change if mortgage rates rise again. All I’m saying is that a lot of the stats have been more flat recently. So the sharp change since May seems to have subsided (well, price aside). And the real reason for the change is that the number of new listings on the market has decreased since June. This gave sellers and buyers a breather to grasp the new market.

Inventory did not skyrocket: Come to think of it, the stock decreased last month as well. Monthly supply has increased significantly in recent months, but that surge did not continue last month. Scroll down to view images.

4) Seasonal price declines are becoming more pronounced.

It is normal for prices to drop during this period of decline in the onsen market. However, the price drop is much more pronounced this year. In other words, you can easily see a price drop of about twice as much as you normally would. We still need time to understand the long-term trend, but for the time being, prices have fallen more dramatically than recently. The median price in the region is about $45,000, down about 7% since May. Note that this does not mean that all properties have fallen so much. So check the neighborhood comps to understand the neighborhood dynamics.

Note: This year’s prices peaked in May, so comparing May to August this year with the previous year makes comparisons difficult. Prices usually peak in his June, so that’s why we’re making a chart showing changes since June (and May).

5) Currently 25% of the market is missing.

On the downside, we’ve lost a quarter of the market, as trading volume has dropped by about 25% in the last few months. On the positive side, about 75% of the market is still in progress. Both are true.

6) Many statistics are now below normal pre-pandemic levels.

Although there has been a sharp shift towards normalcy in recent months, some statistics are now above “normal” levels. For example, the average number of days to close a deal in September is 29 days, but this year it is likely to be 32 days. Or, in a typical August, 34% of sales are typically above list price, compared to 25% last month.

usually: When I say “normal,” I mean the pre-pandemic 2016-2019 average. Some people get sick at hearing this word, but it’s a solid statistic to take into account.

7) Uncertainty still exists in light of rates above 6%.

The market has smoothed out in some ways lately, but mortgage rates are above 6% again, so we need to monitor the stats to understand trends over time. But it’s really that simple. When interest rates rise, demand is taken away from the market. Conclusion.

Year-over-year stats:

Yearly stats are important to digest, but don’t forget to check your monthly stats. And August’s closed sale will give us an idea of ​​what the market was like in his July when most of these properties were under contract. Also, not all locations and price points show the same trend (big point).

Monthly:

It’s also important to look at consecutive months, so you don’t get stuck or overly focused on the last year (past).

Other visuals:

There are a lot of visuals here. Probably more than you hoped for. Please enjoy it if you don’t mind. tell me what you like best

Market statistics: Stay tuned as we will be releasing more market stats on our social channels this week. twitter, Instagram, LinkedInWhen Facebook.

Thank you for being here.

Sharing policy: We would appreciate it if you could share some of these images on your social channels or newsletter.If it helps, here it is 6 ways to share content (Don’t copy verbatim). Thank you.

question: What stands out above? What are you looking at in the market? I would like to hear your opinion.

If you like this post, subscribe by email (Also RSS). Thank you for being here.

You may also like