The Treasure Valley housing market is clearly changing. However, while speculation about what will happen next is widespread, it is not clear from hard data what comes first, especially in fast-moving environments.
In May 2022, Ada and Canyon counties began to move in different directions after falling into a rock step in recent years. The median homes sold at Ada Co. reached $ 602,500 from the previous month, surpassing the $ 600,000 barrier for the first time. However, at Canyon, the median fell to $ 459,995, down 3.5% from April.
The median price is the midpoint of all lists in the county. That is, half the price of a house is high and half the price is low. The data comes from the Intermountain MultipleListingService.
It’s important to note that the numbers are prices — like the ones where the house is listed. The numbers do not reflect what the house was actually sold for. MLS collects that data, but does not publish it.
General price cuts
Data compiled by another party (Redfin) indicates that changes are in progress. The company is combining MLS with its own data to investigate the Boise Metro area, which includes both Ada and Canyon counties. As of May 25, 10.4% of all homes on the market have dropped prices since their first listing.
This number has risen all year round and is approaching a similar peak last fall. Data points show that homeowners and realtors are listing homes and lowering prices to attract buyers.
April Florczyk, founder of 208 Market Real Estate, told Boise Dev that dynamics are changing, especially in Ada County, where she monitors. The difference between the median public “on sale” and the median private “on sale” reveals some dynamics, Florczyk said.
“The average active price is almost $ 150,000 higher than the selling price,” she said.
Looking at the existing homes for sale, when we took out the new homes, the inventory surged from April to May.
“Inventory levels from April to May have more than doubled in existing homes in Ada County,” she said. “As of the end of April, there were less than 500 homes. As of the end of May, 1,015 homes are on the market.”
Her data tracking shows that for quite some time there haven’t been so many existing homes for sale.
“It was in 2017 that we launched so many active existing homes on the market,” she said. “Our inventory has been very low for a long time and has not doubled in 30 days over the last 10 years.”
For now, MLS data shows that the average time it takes to close a transaction remains very short. 14th for Ada Co. and 21st for Canyon. But Florzyck says the metric is already rising.
“A significant inventory adjustment will increase the number of days in the market,” Florzyck said. “It’s still amazing, but I think it’s almost 30 days in less than two weeks.”
Rising interest rates are also a factor, and continue to slow markets both in the Boise Valley and across the country. A total of 894 homes were sold in Ada County in May, and Canyon found 496 homes to buy. Both of these numbers have increased since a year ago, but have decreased since April of this year.
Interest rates are the main factor
According to data from the St. Louis Federated Bank, the national average interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages peaked at 5.3% on May 12, almost doubling the average of 2.65% on January 7. Interest rates began to fall in June and fell to 5.09% as of June 2. Nationwide Mortgage demand has reached its lowest point In 22 years.
Last year, a local real estate advocacy group He advertised low interest rates as helping to offset rising prices. The rate of increase is cut in reverse.
Here is a real example.
Using Ada Co.’s median price ($ 452,400) and average interest rate (2.97%) in February 2021, the 30-year fixed mortgage will cost $ 1,900 per month (taxes, fees, mortgage insurance, down payment). Is not included).
However, using the same May 2022 numbers, Ada Co. has a median of $ 602,500, a peak interest rate of 5.3%, and the same “median” house costs $ 3,346 per month. This is also a tax, fee, or down payment.
This is an increase of $ 1,446 in 15 months, denting what buyers can buy.
Florczyk states that the data will remain in flux for the next few months as some of the price cuts and transactions in the following questions begin to move to pricing. She also thinks that next year will not be as crazy as the last few years, but it could be positive.
“I think the next 12 months will be difficult, but it needs a very necessary adjustment. (The Federal Reserve) can’t continue to adjust the rate hike by 0.5 points,” she said.
And overall, things may be a little slower.
“Buyers who didn’t have time to process don’t have to hurry. They can think for a week and go back to the open house. The majority of people want to ponder it-and for the past few years. I had to hurry to make a decision at. ”