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Victoria Is The Biggest Population Loser During COVID

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In the 12 months to June, 79,907 people migrated from Victoria. This is more than any other state or territory.

The blockade of COVID-19 began nationwide in March 2020, but at the beginning of the quarter, the federal government closed its border with China. However, the complete closure of the border in late March had little impact on quarterly immigration trends, but has had a significant impact since then.

In the 12 months to June this year, 97,077 more people have immigrated from Australia than those who have emigrated to Australia.

Looking at the trends in migration abroad, New South Wales and Victoria have long been the main beneficiaries of migration to Australia, with an average of about two-thirds of all migration in the long run. Occupies.

Since March 2020, borders have been closed and blockades have been prolonged in Victoria, resulting in higher domestic and international resident losses in the second most populous state than in any other state or region. ..

Tens of thousands have abandoned Victoria during COVID – more than any other state.Photo: Getty Images


Of the 97,077 net migration losses nationwide in the 12 months to June, 60% (58,565) were lost from Victoria. In contrast, New South Wales lost 20,631 (21.5% of the total) and 15,880 (16.4% of the total). From Queensland.

Net migration includes those who arrive in small numbers and those who leave in large numbers.

However, New South Wales seems to have seen a much slower decline in migration than expected. This probably reflects more foreigners who settled back in New South Wales than in Victoria.

It was not only the effect of Victoria’s net migration, but also the movement of people from the state to other parts of the county.

In the 12 months to June, New South Wales lost 20,631 people, while more people left Victoria and arrived in other states by 21,342, and Queensland 37,689, south. Australia increased by 808 and Western Australia increased by 4,365.

Queensland was flooded with new inhabitants during COVID, especially in the southeastern part of the state.Photo: Getty Images


As the country breaks out of the blockade and has one of the highest immunization rates in the world, as the state reopens, we will begin to see immigrants from abroad return to our shores.

Important for states like New South Wales and Victoria, international students will also return home, which are a major source of migration abroad. In 2019-20, 36.7% of all foreign higher education registrants were in New South Wales (153,545) and 33.9% were in Victoria (141,703), according to data from the Ministry of Education, Skills and Employment.

The federal government’s recently released medium-term economic and financial outlook predicts a net migration of -41,000 people from 2021 to 22 (-97,077 last year), 180,000 from 2022 to 23, and from 2023. It is estimated that 213,000 people will continue in 2012. There will be 235,000 people in 2024-25.

By 2024-25, net migration is projected to be slightly below the 241,338 recorded in fiscal year 2018-19.

The recovery of net migrants is not rapid, but it is reasonable to believe that Victoria (and primarily Melbourne) will be the main benefit of the increase in net migrants over the next few years.

In addition, prior to the pandemic, Victoria was consistently seen to have high interstate net migration rates.

With the resumption of states, net immigrants between states may not reach their previous highs, but it is reasonable to expect them to recover from here.

In Melbourne, life is slowly returning to its pre-COVID normal state.Photo: Getty Images


Another factor in the potential rise in the transition to Victoria is the fact that the rise in real estate prices since the pandemic blow (defined as February 2020 to November 2021) was the weakest in Melbourne.

During that period, home prices rose 15.8% in Melbourne compared to 29.0% in Sydney, 28.0% in Brisbane, 26.7% in Adelaide, 17.8% in Perth, 44.0% in Hobart, 42.4% in Darwin and 40.4%. % Increased. % Of Canberra.

Weak price growth leads to affordable price improvements compared to other capitals.

Therefore, from an international and domestic perspective, migration to Victoria can be much more attractive than migration to other parts of the country, especially New South Wales.

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