The main housing announcement from the budget on Tuesday night was the expansion of the housing guarantee system.
scheme Allows first home buyers to buy their property with a deposit of only 5%The government guarantees the remaining 15%.
By reducing the amount of deposits they have to save, this plan will help some young Australians get home faster than they would otherwise.
However, not all first home buyers are available. This is the reason.
Locations are limited, income eligibility is limited, and the price of real estate to buy is capped.
Income eligibility limits do not affect most buyers, but price caps do.
Less than half of the homes in each capital are price caps. The upper limit is especially binding for Canberra buyers. In Canberra, only one-eighth properties meet the current limits.
What is a scheme and what has changed?
With this budget, the housing guarantee system will be expanded. Formerly known as the first mortgage deposit scheme..
This scheme allows eligible first home buyers to take out a mortgage with a deposit of only 5%, and the government guarantees a shortage of deposit and a minimum of 20% deposit. Avoid Lender Mortgage Insurance..
In the previous scheme, there were 10,000 places per year, and another 10,000 places were available under the new housing warranty, but this is New arrival House.
Under the budget announced expansion, there are currently 35,000 locations each year.
An additional 10,000 locations will be available under the new Regional Housing Guarantee that can be purchased by local buyers New arrival House.
And that Family Home Guarantee We provide 5000 places for single parents who can have a deposit of only 2%.
The budget will fund the significant expansion of the housing guarantee system.Photo: Getty
The purchase price cap excludes a significant portion of the home
To be eligible for the scheme, the property you purchase must meet a certain price limit.
These limits vary by state and depending on whether the property is in a rural or urban area. It has not been notified if the threshold will be updated this year. The last update was July 1, 2021.
These price caps exclude more than half of homes in all major cities, which is probably a constraint for some first-time homebuyers.
The first two columns show that the median selling price for the last 12 months is higher than the upper limit for all cities except Brisbane. In other words, more than half of the sales over the last 12 months have exceeded the threshold.
The last column shows that the share of all homes in each city is estimated to be the upper limit. If They were for sale. 
Most of Canberra’s first homebuyers are unable to adopt this plan. Canberra is one of Australia’s most expensive cities, with median home prices similar to Melbourne.
However, the price limit under the scheme is Significantly It’s only $ 500,000 in Canberra. This is well below the median selling price of $ 780,000 last year. This discrepancy means that only one-eighth of Canberra’s homes fall under the scheme’s price cap.
If you dig into some of the capitals, these caps are more binding in the most expensive city centers and areas with larger and more expensive housing, such as the Dural, Mornington Peninsula and Brisbane’s Hills district. I understand. ..
The cap used here is last year’s The scheme will be applied from 1st July 2021.
Since then, house prices have risen 10%.
I haven’t asked if the cap will be reviewed this year. Hopefully they will ensure that they are in line with policy goals and do not overly limit their choices.
Given that there are already income limits, income is an important determinant of how much a bank will lend to you and therefore whether you can buy a house.
Price caps may not be required to achieve the policy goals.
The scheme is limited to 35,000 locations, which is modest compared to the number of active first home buyers.
The Home Guarantee System has been expanded to support up to 35,000 first home buyers annually, up to 50,000 including 10,000 locations for regional home guarantees and 5,000 locations for one parent.
But even that 50,000 are less than one-third of the first homebuyers on the market each year.
In 2021, we saw 164,000 first homebuyers borrow a mortgage. It was the most in more than 10 years, and last year the first person was very active.
But even when compared to 2019 levels, the scheme caps for 35,000 locations are modest when the first 103,000 homebuyers borrow a mortgage.
There may be demand for 35,000 locations available under the Home Guarantee System.
Based on data from the National Housing Finance and Investment Corporation, 10,000 locations in the previous scheme (First Home Loan Deposit Scheme) have been exhausted in the last two years.
In contrast, 10,000 locations in the regional housing guarantee system will probably not be exhausted.Only around Two-thirds of 10,000 new home guarantee locations Available in 2020/21 – this was for a new home in the area When Capital – taken up.
This scheme is useful for some, but many first-time homebuyers miss it.Photo: Getty
This scheme is not available to high-income earners
To be eligible for this scheme, buyers must earn less than $ 125,000 as an individual or less than $ 200,000 for their households combined.
This is not a constraint for most first home buyers.
ABS data Shows that 80-90% of households earn less than $ 200,000, even though the data has not been updated since 2017/18. 
Similarly, ATO data show that 91% of taxpayers were below the eligibility criteria for fiscal year 2018/19.  Also, looking only at taxpayers under the age of 35, 96.5% are below the income eligibility standard.
Does the scheme have a big impact?
This scheme was introduced as Australia’s third fastest-growing year in 140, with home prices soaring 23% in 2021.
Its growth has made it difficult for first-time homebuyers to save on deposits.
The important thing is to save deposits rather than offer a mortgage because interest rates are at record lows. This is a homeownership constraint for most first-time buyers.
Significant price increases have made it difficult for first-time homebuyers to get on the real estate ladder due to security deposit hurdles.Photo: Getty
Extending the scheme eases the constraints of some first-time homebuyers and helps them buy faster. For those buyers, the scheme will make a difference.
However, location restrictions and price caps will reduce the policy benefits for first-time homebuyers. This is especially true for Canberra. In Canberra, the price cap is so low that most of the properties are excluded, which makes this scheme useless for many first-home buyers.
In terms of broader market impact, expanding the scheme would not have a significant impact, but it could push prices moderately in some parts of the market.
Based on January ABS data, first homebuyers make up only about one-sixth of new mortgages.
And most first home buyers can’t accept the scheme, if at all, given the 35,000 location limits compared to the approximately 150,000 first home buyers who borrowed a mortgage in 2021. ..
Given these limitations, we’re not talking about a huge cohort of newly empowered buyers.
In addition, price caps have a more limited impact on the more expensive parts of the market.
One of the consequences of the scheme is that the taxpayer bears the loss of the mortgage guaranteed by the scheme. This is different from other mortgages where the LMI provider or bank bears the loss of the loan if the borrower defaults.
To date, that wasn’t a problem. The National Housing Finance and Investment Corporation report on the 2020 and 2021 schemes does not report FHLDS-guaranteed loan defaults. 
And the loan to the first homebuyer in the last few years is actually Less than May be more overdue than other home mortgages based on RBA data..
Finally, while extended schemes help some first homebuyers buy early in the short term, they cannot be a long-term solution to affordable homes.
The only long-term solution to tackle the affordability of homes is on the supply side. We have to build more homes.
The Affordable and supply reviews of homes Released a week and a half ago, we’ve covered this theme repeatedly.
Report There were some recommendations The focus was on relaxing planning restrictions and providing incentives to local governments to build more homes where people want to live. None of these recommendations were included in the budget. However, it’s not surprising given that these recommendations were made just over a week before the budget was announced.
But if you’re serious about affording homes, building more homes should be part of a long-term solution.
 The caveat here is that you are looking at the estimated prices of all the homes in the city, not just the homes for sale. This will help you think about which share of homes may be covered by this scheme, but I’m not sure if those homes are covered. actually You will be able to purchase it.
 Specifically, 80% of households earn less than $ 169,000 and 90% of households earn less than $ 222,000. Without more detailed data that hasn’t been published, it’s unclear exactly where in that 80-90% band the $ 200,000 threshold goes down.
 The threshold available for public tax data is actually $ 125,333 – Taxation statistics, detailed table, Table 3..
 This is not so surprising. NHFIC only needs to (a) take out the guarantee and make a profit if the borrower fails to repay the loan. When (B) The price of the house (minus the cost of resale if the bank is seized) was at least 5% lower than the purchase price (or more if the purchaser had more than 5% deposit). .. House prices rose 23% in 2021. It is a rare house where the price drops by more than 5% in that environment.